Public Expenditure In Scotland, and Monitoring the Financial Aspects of
Devolution.
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A Critique of GERS: Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol 24, no.1 (1998).
This paper is a critique both of the detail in GERS, and of the way GERS is
commonly used.
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The Implications of the Barnett Formula
Cuthbert, J.R. : Saltire Paper no.1, (1998).
Initial paper on Barnett squeeze: points out the likely long term problems which the Barnett formula is likely to imply for the funding of the Scottish Parliament, and some of the resulting implications.
Income Tax and the Funding of the Scottish Parliament
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R.: Saltire Paper no.1, (1998).
Early analysis of various aspects of income tax raising powers of Scottish Parliament. Identifies various problems with use of these powers, related to the perverse way in which the funding arrangements for Scottish devolution have been organised.
Monitoring the Financial Aspects of the Devolution Settlement: Issues and
Data Requirements
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol 24, no.4, (1999).
To some extent overtaken by the later monitoring paper below, (FOA, Dec
2002), but still contains relevant material, e.g., on whether Scotland actually
fully benefits from European funding.
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A Tax Whose Time has Passed
Cuthbert, J.R.,
Cuthbert, M.: in “Scotland’s Enterprise Deficit”, Policy Institute,
Edinburgh, (2000).
This paper deals with the dilemma posed by Non Domestic Rates in the
devolution context. Also has more general implications for the debate about
fiscal autonomy.
The Barnett Squeeze in Spending Review 2000
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol 26, No2: (May, 2001).
The Barnett squeeze is important for understanding the context of Scottish
Executive budget decisions. This whole question will become much more relevant
if, as seems inevitable, we are moving into a period of relative public
expenditure restraint.
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See also accompanying tables.
The Effect of Relative Population Growth on the Barnett Squeeze
Cuthbert, J.R: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol 26, No2: (May, 2001).
A fairly technical topic: but sobering on the extent of Scotland’s relative
population decline: and essential for understanding how this will impact on
convergence in per-capita spending levels.
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paper
See also
accompanying
charts.
The Treasury Funding Statements as a Tool in Monitoring the Devolution
Settlement
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol 27, No4: (December, 2002).
This paper demonstrates the
importance of the Treasury funding statement in the monitoring context, since it
is the only source which shows in detail where the reserved/devolved boundary
lies. The paper also points to a number of areas where Scotland is losing out
because the interface with Whitehall departments is not working properly.
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paper
Monitoring and Measurement Issues Posed by Devolution in the United Kingdom
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M: invited paper given at conference on
Measuring Government Performance, organised by the Statistics User Committee, at
the Royal Society, London, (November 2003).
Overview of issues involved in monitoring devolution.
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A Constructive Critique of the
Treasury's Country and Regional Analysis of Public Expenditure
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M: Fraser of Allander Institute
Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol 30, No.3: (2005).
This paper, based on data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act,
demonstrates substantial weaknesses in the Treasury’s published data: for
example, the Treasury’s comparison of identifiable expenditure between Scotland
and England excludes £4.4 billion of expenditure from the English side of the
comparison, where expenditure on the corresponding services is included for
Scotland. Extensive proposals are suggested for improving the Treasury data
which, if implemented, would also have a positive effect on service delivery.
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paper
Illuminating Whitehall's
Disinterest
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: (importance of Freedom of Information Act): Scottish Left Review, Issue 31:
(November/December 2005).
Demonstrates the importance of the Freedom of Information Act in shedding light on devolution: and makes a strong case for the Act not to be modified, (as is currently threatened).
Comment to Treasury on their response to the Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis user consultation.
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: ( August 2006).
In 2005/06, the Treasury carried out a consultation on the development of the key Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses: (see relevant page on Treasury website). Our first response to this consultation was to submit our "Constructive Critique" paper- see above. The Treasury response to the overall consultation is a disappointing document. This note is our comment on the Treasury response.
Some Assorted Problems with Statistical and Economic data, and Their Implications.
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: talk given at Statistics Commission Seminar on "Do we have the data we need to measure the economy in Scotland?", Royal Society of Edinburgh, September 6th 2006.
By focussing on a number of specific examples, identifies a number of areas where significant improvements are required.
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: open letter to Wendy Alexander, M.S.P., dated 24 March 2007.
An open letter to Wendy Alexander, convenor of the Finance Committee of the Scottish Parliament. We were invited to appear before the Finance Committee on 16th January, when they were considering GERS, but declined the invitation. However, since January we have done substantial further work on GERS, and have identified some very significant new errors. This open letter brings this work into the public domain, and contradicts the views on the quality of GERS expressed by several of the panel on 16th January.
Time to Stop the Abuse of GERS.
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Scots Independent, April 1st 2007.
Builds on recent work we have carried out on GERS: highlights a very misleading use of GERS in guidance material issued by Learning and Teaching Scotland, ( a government funded quango), in connection with the Higher Level Modern Studies examination.
Government Expenditure and Revenues in Scotland (GERS)
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R.: Powerpoint presentation of seminar given at University of Edinburgh, Centre for Public Health Policy, 23rd April, 2007.
Seminar at Edinburgh University summarising our findings, conclusions and recommendations on GERS.
How Scotland will be Disadvantaged in the Longer Term by Recent Changes in Government Accounting for European Structural Funds
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol 31, No.4: (July 2007).
Explains how a recent change in the Treasury rules for accounting for European Structural Fund receipts means that Scotland will be materially damaged in the longer term- and suggests what needs to be done to rectify the situation.
A New Twist to an Old Scandal: How Recent Changes in Government Accounting for European Structural Funds Mean that Scotland will Lose Out
Cuthbert, J.R., Cuthbert, M.: Scots Independent, Issue 942, August 1st, 2007.
A less technical version of the preceding paper.
Opening up the books on the true state of Scottish finances
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R.: Sunday Herald, 22nd June, 2008.
This article welcomes the appearance of the Scottish Government's latest GERS publication. The latest GERS incorporates significant methodological improvements over earlier versions. There is still, however, plenty of scope for further improvements, both in GERS, and Scotland's wider economic statistics.