ࡱ> V~Root Entry  FçD,WordDocument @^mCompObj,v@@0j:SummaryInformation(X  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGk_`abcdeghijslmnopqrftuvwxRoot Entry  FçD,WordDocument @MCompObj,v@@0j:SummaryInformation(XJ  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGkKLNOPQRSTWYZ[\]ylmnopqrUz{|}Microsoft Word for Windows 95@" @@D@ڦ, nv՜.+,0HPt|  Dell Computer Corporation$< (In 199 the then Conservative government FMicrosoft Word Document MSWordDocWord.Document.69qOh+'0  <H p |  (In 199 the then Conservative governmentPreferred CustomerNormalPreferred Customer44<=>@A"@dA-@$A.A`0Am0A/A0A2@0A4AS@4@8ATAH:Al@y:AoA<Ap@=Aq@LAAHAAc]AǟA^AΟA^AԟAAH^AA A;AAAT`@@A]^A^AA#A$A-A4A^A:AMA^ANA^AWA^AYA^A^A_@aAa@`AaAs@a@~AAAAA^AjAlAxAҢA AA A,AAAAA$ALAO@@fA6gAAAãAģA8gAASgAUgAPA`gAAAAAgAA"A-A;AQAUA[AcAuAkAlA{AAAAAAtember 2001 . The CDG endorsed the practicality of implementing free personal care and gave estimates of costs. In this article, we examine the methodology used by the CDG in arriving at its costings: we argue that there is serious uncertainty surrounding both the cost of the current level of provision and the estimates of potential demand, and that the CDG is likely to have under-estimated the cost of implementing free personal care. We further argue that this has potentially important implications for the quality and costs of delivery of the service to be offered under the initiative. Estimating the Costs of Personal and Nursing Care In estimating the costs of personal and nursing care, the CDG identified separately the three categories of care: a) Care Homes, both Nursing and Residential b) Home Care: the provision of home help services c) Unmet demand We consider each of these in turn, first of all outlining the approach adopted by the CDG and then commenting on the CDGs approach. Care Homes Currently, there are two types of care homes: residential and nursing. The first provides living accommodation and personal care, where the definition of personal care is, as given by the CDG, Provision of non-medical care which involves close personal contact and touching, psychological support and counselling. Nursing homes provide residential care plus nursing care. Some care homes are local authority run, the others are private or voluntary sector. To all intents and purposes, all places in local authority homes are publicly funded. In the private and voluntary sector, some are wholly funded by public funds, some part funded, and some wholly self funded. The following table shows the amount and source of funding of those in nursing and residential homes. Table 1: Funding and Source of Funding: Residential and Nursing Homes in Scotland Cost m% Publicly Funded% Privately FundedNursing Homes3247525Residential Homes2278317Total551Source: CDG Report Fair Care for Older People, 2001 Before describing the basis of the CDGs costings, it is necessary to give some background on how the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) benefit system works for residents in private and voluntary sector care homes. An elderly person who is not in a care home could receive some or all of the following benefits: income support attendance allowance disability living allowance housing benefit council tax benefit invalidity benefit as well as state pension. On entering a care home where their place is supported by the local authority, the person loses these benefits, but receives personally 16.05 per week as a personal allowance. The funding to support the place comes partly from the DWP in the form of pension and income support entitlement and a residential allowance. The remainder is paid by the local authority. The minimum amount paid by the DWP is the sum of the minimum income guarantee and the residential allowance which together come to 155.05. After deduction of the personal allowance this leaves a DWP contribution to the care place of 139 per week. As we will see below, this figure of 139 has a particular significance in the costings done by the CDG. Those who are entirely self supporting in a care home continue to receive any attendance allowance entitlement they have claimed from the DWP. Again, this is important in the costings done by the CDG. Against this background, the CDG adopted the following approach towards assessing the costs of personal and nursing care for those in care homes. The Sutherland Report categorised care in homes into three components: living costs and accommodation personal care nursing care Direct costs of these three components are not available. They have to be estimated. The CDG based their estimates on reported average costs over the whole of Scotland of nursing homes and residential homes in the private and voluntary sectors together with information on national approved rates for local authorities paying for different kinds of care. They included in their estimate a further 10 a week as this amount had been offered to care home owners as an additional payment per resident earlier in 2001. As a result they arrived at an estimated average cost for nursing homes of 346 per week, and for residential homes of 285 per week. Since care in a nursing home includes all three elements while care in a residential home does not include nursing care costs, the CDG took as its estimate of nursing costs the difference between nursing home and residential home average costs. This amounted to 61 per week, (grossed up to 65 for CDGs costing calculations). It is worth pointing out that this figure appears low when compared with a number of estimates given in the Sutherland Report. For example, in para 6.24 of the Main Report, the Royal Commission advocated a subsidy from the Health Authority to meet the part of the fee reflecting nursing care, possibly costing 100 a week, based on the average difference of costs between residential and nursing homes. And again in para 6.40 it assumed average costs -242 a week in residential care, 337 a week in nursing home care, so producing an estimate of 95 for nursing costs in 1997/98. Indeed, different systems, and amounts will apply in Wales, England and Scotland. In England residents who need nursing help will be put into one of three bands, with entitlement to 110, 70 or 35 a week in free support from the NHS as from October 2001. In Wales, proposals are for a flat entitlement of 90 a week where a person is assessed to have nursing needs. It is not clear why the CDG estimate is so low but it is possible that the method they used, based on the difference of average costs, imported a bias to their estimates. It is also possible that care homes in Scotland have been considerably under funded. Having estimated the nursing cost element, the CDG still had the problem of separating the cost of personal care from living and accommodation costs. The CDG followed the approach adopted by the Sutherland report on this point: it regarded the minimum contribution by the DWP (net of the personal allowance), that is 139, as covering living and accommodation costs, and therefore estimated personal care costs as 285 less 139. In other words, the CDGs estimate of personal care costs was 145 per week. There is however one major difficulty with this approach: namely, can the minimum DWP contribution validly be regarded as living and accommodation costs? In fact, there appears to be no reason to regard the DWP contribution as equating to actual living and accommodation costs. The DWP themselves regard their contribution as a funding contribution to the overall cost of care and no attempt has been made by the DWP to estimate the costs of the different components of care. Indeed the concept of dividing the cost of care into different components representing living costs and personal care is not one that the DWP uses. Identifying this element as equating to accommodation and living costs represents therefore a purely hypothetical judgement. Likewise, the residual of 145 attributed to personal care is by deduction also a purely hypothetical estimate. Great uncertainty must attach to this estimate: it appears that the only way to resolve this uncertainty will be to carry out benchmark studies on the ground. Another aspect of the CDG costing also gives rise to concern. As was noted by the CDG itself, under present DWP rules a person in a care home loses entitlement to Attendance Allowance if another government department assists in providing funds for personal care. So, under the present rules, the Scottish Executive would have to meet the full 145 per person as given using the CDGs estimates. The CDG however hoped that the DWP rules would be changed, that the Attendance Allowance would still be paid, and that it would be set against personal care costs reducing them to a net figure of 90 per week. (Although not all elderly in care homes receive Attendance Allowance). It was this figure of 90 which was then used in the CDG costings to derive estimates of the additional costs of providing free personal care in care homes. There must be a real danger, however, that the Scottish Executive will not be able to persuade DWP to change its rules on this point. There are two further areas where some doubt must attach to the CDGs costings. First is whether they have accurately assessed the current actual cost of residential care. The CDGs estimate of 285 is consistent with the actual average costs as reported in Scottish Community Care Statistics 2000. Where there is doubt is in whether the 10 uplift is an adequate reflection of what appears to be current under- funding. Scottish Care, which represents 800 of the 1,100 private care homes in Scotland, has argued that an increase this year of 50 would be required to fully reflect true costs. It threatened, earlier in 2001, to refuse to take council-funded residents unless their fees were increased immediately by 25, with the promise of a further 25 by the end of the year. An independently chaired working group from Scottish Care, the Scottish Executive and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities is to report on the pricing framework in November 2001. Another piece of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the CDG may have underestimated true costs is the study by Wittenburg et al. (1998), quoted in the Sutherland Report. In their study of residential and nursing care costs based on 1995-96 prices, they estimated average private sector provided residential costs per week in Britain as 275 and nursing costs as 337. Moving forward to 2000/01 prices, allowing for inflation, and also for real increases in the range of 2% per annum to 3.5% per annum, this would give a range for average residential care costs of 358 to 390 per week and 438 to 478 for nursing: these are substantially higher than the CDGs estimates of 285 and 346 respectively. The second element of doubt relates to the allowance the CDG made for future cost increases. They assumed that real costs of residential care would rise by 2% per annum. This appears low in light of estimates by the Institute of Fiscal Studies, quoted in the Scotsman, that expected real increases to average 3.5% per annum. Personal Care Costs in the Community As an indicator of current demand for personal care services in the community, the CDG used home help support as supplied by local authorities and by the private sector. The CDGs starting point was to estimate that portion of personal care costs borne by the individual in the community. It noted that around 70,000 elderly at home receive home help assistance through local authorities. Between 45% and 50% of this help is believed to be for personal care. Currently, the assistance is means tested. The total charged by local authorities is 22 million. The CDG assumed that 45% of this related to personal care, giving an estimated 10 million as being the amount which local authorities would forego in charges for the existing level of services if free personal care were introduced. In addition, it was estimated that around 3,000 elderly purchase personal care privately. Using information from the UK Care Home Association, the CDG estimated that a further 10 million would be required to meet the costs of personal care supplied in this way. Note that these figures suggest that the personal care costs are 3,300 per person: if the cost was 8 per hour then this would involve funding 8 hours personal care per week for this group. Overall, therefore, the additional cost of providing existing levels of local authority and private sector personal care would be 20 million. Unmet Demand The CDG recognised that their estimates of the additional cost of providing the existing level of personal care and nursing services on a free basis were only a starting point and that they would have to assess the extent to which there was currently unmet need and also the extent to which the provision of a free service for all might stimulate extra demand. Based on survey material, the CDG estimated that meeting unmet need for personal care services would cost between 15 million and 25 million per annum. It was assumed that this would build up over the first three years of implementation of the free personal care policy, so the CDG took the year 1 estimate of the cost of this element as 8 million. The second source of extra demand considered by the CDG related to the potential for a shift from informal to formal care. This could arise since, with the introduction of free personal care, informal carers might feel that it was appropriate to supplement their own caring costs with some assistance from outside sources. Based on commissioned research, the CDG arrived at an estimate in the range 20 to 25 million as being the possible cost of this shift in care provision. Again, it was assumed that this extra cost would build up over a period of years. Overall, the CDG took as its central estimate that by year 3 of the policy, personal care costs would have to expand by 50 million in order to meet anticipated fresh demand arising from the above categories of unmet need, and a shift from informal to formal care. We now consider how reasonable this estimate is. As is clear from the Scottish Executives Community Care Statistics, the number of elderly receiving home care through the local authority in 2000 was 59,232, the balance of the 70,000 figure quoted by the CDG being actually made up of other age groups. Community Care Statistics also indicates that the average number of home help hours per client was 5.6 per week. The CDG states that, for most of the care packages received by clients, 45% of the provision would fall into the category of personal care. The average amount of personal care received would therefore be around 2.52 hours per week. Implicit in the CDGs assumptions, therefore, and in the further detail given in Community Care Statistics, is that around 59,000 elderly people are provided through local authorities with an average of around 2.5 hours per week of personal care: that is, with less than half an hour a day. Both the figure for the number of recipients, and the figure for the average amount of personal care provided, have important implications for the degree of uncertainty surrounding the CDGs costings. In terms of the number of recipients, 59,232 represents 75 in every 1,000 of the elderly population. What indications are there of the extent of extra demand which might emerge in terms of numbers of recipients? In fact, we argue that two pieces of evidence do exist which suggest that significant extra demand could emerge for a free service. The first piece of evidence relates to the numbers of elderly in Scotland who currently receive DWP benefits such as Attendance Allowance(AA) and Disability Living Allowance (DLA). At present there are 130,500 on AA and 57,200 in receipt of DLA (excluding mobility only payments). The assessment criteria for AA and the care component of DLA relate largely to personal care: (see Appendix for a comparison of the current criteria for Attendance Allowance with the personal care definition used by the CDG). What is relevant for present purposes, as an indicator of potential unmet demand, are the number of recipients of AA and DLA who do not already receive personal care in the form of day care from local authorities, or who have not otherwise been included in the CDG costings. If we assume that the 59,232 current recipients of local authority home care services, the 3,000 who pay privately for their own home care, and the 7,000 privately funded in care homes currently receive AA/DLA, (though in fact not all of these will actually receive AA/DLA), then this leaves at least 118,000 current recipients of AA and DLA who are not already included one way or another in the CDGs costings. Of course, the number of current AA and DLA recipients who will decide to apply for free personal care is unknown. But the proportion who do decide to apply will be influenced by the extent of any cultural shift surrounding the implementation of the new policy on free personal care: and there are reasons to expect that the cultural change brought about by the new policy could be profound. After all, the very concept of personal care is essentially new - introduced by Sutherland but given wide currency in Scotland during the debate on Sutherland implementation. This situation, where there is a new concept, widely publicised as being the free entitlement of all those who can demonstrate need, and where there will be formal Scotland wide mechanisms for application and assessment, is likely to be conducive to a significant cultural shift, where seeking this form of help from the state becomes the norm among those likely to qualify. If so, among those already receiving AA and DLA, (who, it will be recalled, have already satisfied an assessment largely related to personal care needs), the proportion applying for free personal care could well be significant: if all did, it would raise the number of recipients of free personal care in the community to 180,700, representing 226 per 1,000 elderly. A second source of information about potential numbers of claimants relates to evidence from the current variations in service provision both among local authorities and through time. The Chart below shows the numbers of home helps per 1000 population aged 65 and over in the different local authority areas in Scotland. Numbers range from 188 per 1000 in the Shetlands to 50 per 1000 in Argyll and Bute. [CHART] In addition, the number of elderly receiving home care has fallen sharply in recent years, despite increases in the elderly population and ageing within that population. Local authority provision peaked at almost 94,000 in 1995 and had fallen to just over 63,000 in 2000. This evidence suggests that the current uptake of home care services is heavily constrained by available supply. We can already observe, where local authority budgetary constraints are low, very high levels of home care uptake which are starting to approach the levels of demand suggested by AA/DLA numbers. We now consider the implications of the current numbers of hours personal care per week provided for the elderly. As noted above, the average provision appears to be around 2.52 hours per week, that is less than half an hour a day. Community Care Statistics also gives information about the distribution of home care hours. This indicates, for example, that 25% of those currently receiving home help assistance receive 2 hours help or less per week. That would translate into an average of less than 1 hour per week personal care. A further 30% receive between 2 and 4 hours home help assistance, that is between 0.9 and 1.8 hours personal care assistance a week. These figures raise a serious question about the average number of hours per week of personal care which would be delivered under the free personal care policy. It is difficult to see how a formally assessed and delivered package could result in a substantial number within the client group receiving less than 16 minutes personal care a day, which is what the bottom 50% of the distribution appear to receive at present. It appears more likely that the average number of hours per client delivered under a formal policy could rise considerably. This is particularly so in the light of the number of hours which the policy is expected to fund for those currently paying for their own provision privately, which as noted above is around 8 hours per week. It is not possible to predict either the number of clients for formal care delivered in the home under the free policy or the average number of hours of personal care they would receive. However, we can illustrate the cost implications of various sets of assumptions. The following table sets out the gross costs of a number of scenarios, using a figure of 8 per hour for home help services, (note that Sutherland used 8.50 per hour), and considering only that group not at present funded privately. On the number of clients axis, we have considered a range of possibilities, up to the hypothetical figure suggested by the number of elderly AA/DLA recipients in Scotland. As regards average hours per week, the range of possibilities considered goes up to a maximum of 8 hours, chosen because that appears to be the number which the CDG envisage being funded for those currently making their own home care provision privately: (it is also relevant to note that, in the Sutherland report, a figure of 14 hours help per week was used to work out illustrative costs of providing care at home). Gross Costs of Free Personal Care million per annum: Various Scenarios Personal Care Hours per Week59,232 Clients 100,000 Clients150,000 Clients177,700 Clients2.5262.1104.8157.2186.3373.9124.8187.2221.8498.6166.4249.6295.75123.2208312369.68197.1332.8499.2591.4 Recalling that the top left hand corner of this table represents basically the status quo, what is relevant in interpreting the table is the cost difference between any particular cell and the top left hand cell. Thus, for example, the gross cost for 150,000 clients receiving three hours on average per week, (26 minutes a day) would be 187.2 million, that is 125.1 million more than current gross costs. It is impossible to say which combination of client numbers and hours will materialise. But on the other hand, each of the axes on the table represents what appears to be a feasible range. The uncertainty cannot be ignored. It is also relevant to note that the 50 million provision for uncertainty allowed for by the CDG covers only a small number of the possible combinations illustrated in the table. There therefore appears to be a very real possibility that the 50 million provision will in the event prove to be inadequate - and potentially grossly inadequate. Linked to the uncertainty about hours of care to be provided is an administrative issue which will have to be resolved if the policy is to operate successfully. The CDG costings in effect take as a given de facto variations in the standards of care provided to different groups, depending not on need, but on the circumstances of whether care is being organised privately or being provided through a local authority, (and on which local authority). It would be difficult to justify such variations in the context of a national policy: particularly when the operation of the policy will itself be subject to challenge by judicial review, which is liable to home in on any perceived arbitrary variations in the service provided. It will therefore be important, as and when the policy is implemented, that criteria are set which are seen to be fair across different provision mechanisms and between different local authorities. It will be a real challenge to achieve this in an acceptable and workable fashion. On the one hand, if the criteria for qualifying for free care are drawn too tight, some people who do currently receive free care, or who might reasonably feel they should be entitled to free care, could be excluded. On the other hand, if the criteria are set too generously, the cost implications could be crippling. Cross Border Issues Another issue on which the CDG was specifically invited to comment was the question of cross border flows. They acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the issue of whether provision of free personal care in Scotland would attract significant numbers of older people to move from elsewhere in the UK, but overall, noted that there is no evidence that there will be a long term movement to live in Scotland because of the policy. The one piece of evidence that they did consider was the case of Canada, where they concluded that there is a pull towards some provinces where long term care services are particularly well developed but in most cases it appears to have as much to do with climate as any other factor. Overall, we agree with the Commissions view that great uncertainty must attach to the question of potential cross-border migration. There appears to be a definite flavour to the CDGs conclusions on this particular point that, while the position is uncertain, the likelihood of significant in-migration is probably small. We argue that the CDG are probably being over-optimistic on this point. First of all, the Canadian evidence they quote is not necessarily a good precedent. In particular, inter-provincial migration in Canada, which could involve a relocation over several thousand miles, is potentially a greater hurdle than relocation within the UK, where no part of the country is more than a few hours drive away. More significantly, although the chance of a given individual relocating for free personal care may be small, the numbers who could potentially benefit are so large that even if a relatively small proportion of these chose to relocate, the impact on the CDGs costings could be very significant. Again, figures on attendance allowance and disability living allowance give some clue as to numbers. For example, in England and Wales, there are about 1.6 million people in receipt of attendance allowance and disability living allowance, (excluding mobility payments only). Given the kind of cultural shift which, as we have suggested above, could accompany the introduction of the free personal care policy in Scotland, it seems feasible that the number of those qualifying, (or who could potentially qualify), for AA and DLA in England who relocate to Scotland may not be trivial. It would be wrong, given the scantiness of the evidence, to make any more of this point: but our tentative conclusion is that the chances of a significant inflow may be greater than the CDGs assessment. Note that the implication of an inflow of elderly people from the rest of the UK would not merely be felt on the financing of free personal care: there would also be implications for other parts of the Scottish budget. In particular, there would be pressure on the health budget as a whole, given that figures from the Scottish Executive indicate that health expenditure per person in the age range is more than four times greater than the average for 15 to 44 year olds, rising to some seven times greater over age 85. Any benefit to the Scottish budget from the Barnett consequences of the increase in population would be very unlikely to compensate for the increased costs. Summary: Major Criticisms of the CDG Costings We summarise here the major areas where we believe there are weaknesses in the CDG costings. As regards the estimates of the cost of providing nursing and personal care in a residential setting:- The CDGs estimate of 61 a week for providing nursing care appears low when compared with other available estimates. The CDGs estimate of 285 per week as the combined cost of living and personal care looks low in the light of the current dispute with Scottish Care about care costs, and also in the light of the evidence produced by Wittenburg and quoted in Sutherland on costs in 1995-96. The split of these residential costs into living and personal care components, based on taking the minimum DWP contribution as a proxy for living costs, appears to be purely hypothetical, given that the DWP do not base their minimum contribution on a definition of living costs as required for the current exercise. Unless the Scottish Executive is successful in their current negotiations on Attendance Allowance with the DWP, the cost to the Scottish Executive will be increased by the amount of Attendance Allowance foregone by those in residential accommodation currently receiving it. According to current estimates, this could amount to over 20 million. 5. The provision for real future cost increases in the CDG projections looks low. As regards the other aspects of the CDG costings, our major comment relates to the assessment they have made for unmet demand. The CDG have indeed made a significant allowance for this, equivalent to about 50 million in year 3 of the implementation of the policy. Nevertheless, we argue that there are a number of factors which suggest that unmet demand may be even greater than allowed for by the CDG. Such factors include the extent to which current levels of provision are in fact restricted by supply constraints, (witness the fall in numbers of home care clients and numbers of hours per client through the latter part of the 1990s): the large numbers of Attendance Allowance and Disability Living Allowance recipients, who have already passed some form of formal assessment based on their personal care needs: and, above all, the cultural change which could take place when the hitherto relatively little known concept of personal care becomes firmly lodged in the public psyche as a free entitlement. Implications Finally, we consider the major implications if, as we have argued, the CDG has potentially seriously under-estimated the costs of implementing the policy of free personal care. The first implication relates to the question of tax. The CDG were invited in their remit to consider tax issues. However, this is an area where they felt they did not want to comment in depth. Their view was that, given their cost estimates, there was little doubt that a free personal care policy could be sustained in the longer term without some additional input from the UK tax base. Clearly, if the CDG have seriously under-estimated costs, then there could indeed be tax implications, particularly given the ongoing Barnett squeeze. The Scottish Executive could find itself in a position where it is either under pressure to implement the Scottish flexibility on income tax, or to re-open with Westminster the whole question of the funding of the Scottish Parliament. However, it would be in a weak negotiating position in the latter case if it has run into financial trouble through implementing a policy in Scotland which the Westminster Parliament had refused to implement because it was regarded as too costly and not sufficiently targeted. The major implication, however, if the CDG has indeed under-estimated the costings, is likely to be for the quality of the service provided, and this is also likely to impact most on the most needy. In practice, if the costs of free personal care are significantly greater than anticipated by the CDG it is unlikely that the Executive will be able to make up the shortfall by increasing taxes or renegotiating Barnett. What is most likely to happen is that the shortfall will impact on services - partly other services like health, and partly by under-funding of the free care programme itself. The consequences of the latter would be particularly worrying, and would manifest themselves as the emergence of a queuing system, and/or by a reduction in other aspects of the quality of the service provided. In these circumstances, the people who are likely to suffer most are the most needy, since they are the ones who will have the least ability to supplement the supposedly free service from their own resources. The paradox could be that the implementation of free personal care for all could result in a diminution of the quality of service received by the most needy at the expense of a subsidy to the well to do. References: 1. Royal Commission on Long Term Care for the Elderly, March 1999 2. Fair Care for Older People, September 2001 3. Scottish Community Care Statistics 2000, Scottish Executive. Whether the number of home help clients can be taken as a measure of current demand, and therefore the amount paid by individuals as what needs to be covered to provide free personal care, is open to question. It is more likely that current figures on provision represent the priorities of local government and what they choose to provide, given all their priorities, rather than what people actually need, whether paid for currently by themselves or by the state. There is substantial variation between local authority areas in home help provision.  Royal Commission on Long Term Care for the Elderly, March 1999  Susan Deacon, MSP, Minister of Health, 5 October 2000  Fair Care for Older People, September 2001  Source: private communication from DWP  Based on DWP Attendance Allowance and Disability Living Allowance Statistics, November 2000.  Scottish Community Care Statistics 2000  Chapter 3, Sutherland Report. PAGE 12 PAGE 4  .AA=@@+@?@@AA@@ŏAƏA,@Ϗ@ҏ@ӏ@ԏ1Times New Roman Symbol &Arial"qhY&r\tr\+zw =u\ X$_'In 199 the then Conservative governmentPreferred CustomerPreferred CustomerHAAĤAVhA@MjAx@nyAA"|AA&|AAA@Y|@}AA˲AѲAҲAӲAA@AAAA%A*A+AA1AA2AMANAOA A%A,AUAAAAAAA:AA<A=ABA[A\AeAxAy@=A>AAAOA9~APAH~A~AA?AѦA4AA3@@@SATAU@^A@AzA@@@@@C@p@@@@@հ@@@ZA=@@S@?ATAVAȻA"@q@@@AAr@@ŏAƏAt@Ϗ@ҏ@ӏ@ԏ1Times New Roman Symbol &Arial"hY&*cFtr\,nv <wi [$_'In 199 the then Conservative governmentPreferred CustomerPreferred Customerܥhc eՏ((4\(ZZZD.1DD(llllll~=WX5_ ZlHIllllZZlDlZlZl~,nPPZZl~ Free Personal Care for the Elderly: A Critique of Costings Jim Cuthbert Margaret Cuthbert November 2001 This paper examines the costings of free personal and nursing care in Scotland undertaken by the Care Development Group set up by the Scottish Executive. We argue that the costings are subject to considerable uncertainty, and are potentially significantly under-estimated. This has serious implications. Any implementation of a free personal care policy in Scotland, based on current costings is likely to be under-funded, leading to funds being diverted from other priority areas, and/or the emergence of a queuing system, and/or the provision of a lower quality service than desirable. In these circumstances, instead of a policy targeted to those most in need, there is a danger that the most needy will find themselves in a queue, for a service being stretched to its limits, and which is delivering a sub-standard product. In December 1997, the UK government appointed a Royal Commission under Professor Sir Stewart Sutherland with the remit to examine, among other things, the short and long term options for a sustainable system of funding of long term care for elderly people, both in their homes and in other settings in the UK. The Commission reported in March 1999 and its principal recommendations included free nursing and personal care for all elderly who needed it. By this time, as a result of devolution, addressing this issue was no longer solely a UK matter, since responsibility for areas such as health, housing and personal services had been devolved to the Scottish Parliament while responsibility for social security benefits remained with the Westminster Parliament. The Westminster government, when it responded in regard to its responsibility for England, indicated that it would implement free nursing care for all elderly people who required it, but that it did not propose to implement free personal care. Ministers noted that the cost of implementing the Sutherland Report in full would be excessive, and would not target those most in need. Further, in respect of its UK wide social security responsibilities, the Westminster government did not propose any changes in the operation of the social security system. In Scotland, the initial response of the Scottish Executive was to implement free nursing care. They proposed not to implement free personal care. As Susan Deacon said The main practical effect of this proposal would be to reduce the cost of care for those 7000 or so Scots in residential care who are self funding. We agree with the principle which underpins this. But we believe also that to make this change at this time, when so many wider needs exist for tens of thousands of older people, would not be right. She also pointed to a number of initiatives including improved respite care, domestic assistance, aids and adaptations, all of which had higher immediate priority than free personal care. However, it became clear that opinion in the Scottish Parliament favoured implementation of free personal care. As a result, the Scottish Executive set up a Care Development Group in January 2001 to consider, among other things in a wide ranging remit, the costs and practicalities of implementation. The Care Development Group (CDG) reported its findings in Sepgard as that range which the population as a whole might reasonably expect the new policy to deliver. As regards numbers we have taken this range to be up to the maximum of current elderly AA/DLA recipients: and as regards hours, the maximum we have used is representing different sets of potential expectationswithin these ranges.We have uedcost ed Potential Expectations under The challenge facing the Scottish Executive will be to deliver a service within budgetary constraints, while at the same time pre venting widespread dissatisfaction emerging if the scale of disappointed expectations from the new policy is too large. The figures in the above table should not be taken as predictions of what the new policy will cost but rather as indicators of the possible scal eof disappointed expectations. What the table does indicate is that this scale of disappointed expectations could feasibly be very significant. is challenge facing the Scottish Executive will be made more difficult because thoo. These variations dDocumentSummaryInformation8 ependFor example, the CDG assumed implicitly an average of 8 hours personal care for those current provided their own care privately but an average of only 2.52 hours for those receiving provision through local authorities. A major task will bewe have two major comments. The first relates to CDGs use of existing provision of personal care without addressing the issue of the different implicit standards this involves between different provision groups and different local authorities. These implicit variations will have to ironed out in implementing a national policy, but this process will involve difficulties, as noted above. The secondthe potential expectations raised by the policy may be significantly greater , particularly . 12 .A , and could well dwarf the 50 million provision for unmet demand made by the CDG., 9 Appendix: A. Definition of Free Personal Care, from Care Development Group: HǟΟԟ ;#$-4:MNWY^`as~^jlxҢ,ãģ"-;QU[cjl{Ĥ()+2MNO<=B[\exyzѦuPaUb$LOPQRSTU^GX \nzůCpհ "+,-./24STlopqux˲ѲҲӲ %,: uDPuUPa`We recommend that the definition of personal care should be as follows Personal Hygiene Bathing, showering, hair washing, shaving, oral hygiene, nail care Continence Management Toileting, catheter/stoma care, skin care, incontinence laundry, bed changing Food and Diet Assistance with eating and assistance with special diets. Assistance to manage different types of meal services. Assistance with preparation of food. Problems of immobility Dealing with the consequences of not being able to move Counselling anܥhc teՏmIy(Ȼ.$&ڽL&&&6L.&1zz(xzzz=QX_ |HI z.xTPTPjx Free Personal Care for the Elderly: A Critique of Costings Jim Cuthbert Margaret Cuthbert November 2001 This paper examines the costings of free personal and nursing care in Scotland undertaken by the Care Development Group set up by the Scottish Executive. We argue that the costings are subject to considerable uncertainty, and are potentially significantly under-estimated. This has serious implications. Any implementation of a free personal care policy in Scotland, based on current costings is likely to be under-funded, leading to funds being diverted from other priority areas, and/or the emergence of a queuing system, and/or the provision of a lower quality service than desirable. In these circumstances, instead of a policy targeted to those most in need, there is a danger that the most needy will find themselves in a queue, for a service being stretched to its limits, and which is delivering a sub-standard product. In December 1997, the UK government appointed a Royal Commission under Professor Sir Stewart Sutherland with the remit to examine, among other things, the short and long term options for a sustainable system of funding of long term care for elderly people, both in their homes and in other settings in the UK. The Commission reported in March 1999 and its principal recommendations included free nursing and personal care for all elderly who needed it. By this time, as a result of devolution, addressing this issue was no longer solely a UK matter, since responsibility for areas such as health, housing and personal services had been devolved to the Scottish Parliament while responsibility for social security benefits remained with the Westminster Parliament. The Westminster government, when it responded in regard to its responsibility for England, indicated that it would implement free nursing care for all elderly people who required it, but that it did not propose to implement free personal care. Ministers noted that the cost of implementing the Sutherland Report in full would be excessive, and would not target those most in need. Further, in respect of its UK wide social security responsibilities, the Westminster government did not propose any changes in the operation of the social security system. In Scotland, the initial response of the Scottish Executive was to implement free nursing care. They proposed not to implement free personal care. As Susan Deacon said The main practical effect of this proposal would be to reduce the cost of care for those 7000 or so Scots in residential care who are self funding. We agree with the principle which underpins this. But we believe also that to make this change at this time, when so many wider needs exist for tens of thousands of older people, would not be right. She also pointed to a number of initiatives including improved respite care, domestic assistance, aids and adaptations, all of which had higher immediate priority than free personal care. However, it became clear that opinion in the Scottish Parliament favoured implementation of free personal care. As a result, the Scottish Executive set up a Care Development Group in January 2001 to consider, among other things in a wide ranging remit, the costs and practicalities of implementation. The Care Development Group (CDG) reported its findings in Sepgard as that range which the population as a whole might reasonably expect the new policy to deliver. As regards numbers we have taken this range to be up to the maximum of current elderly AA/DLA recipients: and as regards hours, the maximum we have used is representing different sets of potential expectationswithin these ranges.We have uedcost ed Potential Expectations under The challenge facing the Scottish Executive will be to deliver a service within budgetary constraints, while at the same time preventing widespread dissatisfaction emerging if the scale of disappointed expectations from the new policy is too large. The figures in the above table should not be taken as predictions of what the new policy will cost but rather as indicators of the possible scal eof disappointed expectations. What the table does indicate is that this scale of disappointed expectations could feasibly be very significant. is challenge facing the Scottish Executive will be made more difficult because thoo. These variations dependFor example, the CDG assumed implicitly an average of 8 hours personal care for those current provided their own care privately but an average of only 2.52 hours for those receiving provision through local authorities. A major task will bewe have two major comments. The first relates to CDGs use of existing provision of personal care without addressing the issue of the different implicit standards this involves between different provision groups and different local authorities. These implicit variations will have to ironed out in implementing a national policy, but this process will involve difficulties, as noted above. The secondthe potential expectations raised by the policy may be significantly greater , particularly . 12 .A , and could well dwarf the 50 million provision for unmet demand made by the CDG., 9 Appendix: A. Definition of Free Personal Care, from Care Development Group: HǟΟԟ ;#$-4:MNWY^`as~^jlxҢ,ãģ"-;QU[cjl{Ĥ()+2MNO<=B[\exyzѦuPaUbi% &  T{*|*88k9l91>>>(K)KVVaaa>b?bDb\b^bvbxbbbbbkkbxxxǁ[g?@mnÏďƏǏ͏ΏϏЏяԏՏHuPaP uDPcVc^U^ uDPVUX%<I[ijr qST%WgNOWi|}z z z z z z z  z z z  z z  z z z z z z z z z z z z  z z z w$w$w$l i >(5DYuab;Zhu !$&''))-w$z z z z z *z *z *z *z *z *z z  z z z z z *z *z *z z  z z z z z z  z   4l i >#--0044V7W7888;=0>1>>>?AA9CBDCDFFHHJ LSSVVWWP]Q]aaaabbb&bz  z z  z z  z z z ??o+&b.b6b>b?bDbIbObUb[b\b^bcbibobubvbxb}bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb[d\dffkko??o??o??o??o??oz z z z z z z l  =u)kknn5p6p~qquuaxbxxxUyyz|u}}}ǁyZ[g׋?z  z z z z z z  z z  z z z z z z z z z z z  z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z !  4.&mďŏƏяҏӏԏՏaRT_`GX \nOz xz  z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z h`%*K@Normala c"A@"Default Paragraph Font"@" Footnote Textc &@ Footnote Referenceh @ Footer 9r )@! Page NumberThe Sutherland Report, the Scottish Parliament and the Care Development Group have created expectations that personal care, of the form defined in the Appendix, will be available free. The purpose of this paper is notWhat wedo is for different lying within what we would re$LOPQRSTU^GX \nzůCpհ "+,-uUPa?We recommend that the definition of personal care should be as follows Personal Hygiene Bathing, showering, hair washing, shaving, oral hygiene, nail care Continence Management Toileting, catheter/stoma care, skin care, incontinence laundry, bed changing Food and Diet Assistance with eating and assistance with special diets. Assistance to manage different types of meal services. Assistance with preparation of food. Problems of immobility Dealing with the consequences of not being able to move Counselling and support Behaviour management, psychological support, reminding devices and safety devices Simple treatments Assistance with medication (including eye drops), application of creams and lotions, simple dressings, oxygen therapy Personal Assistance Assistance with dressing, surgical appliances, prostheses, mechanical and manual aids. Assistance to get up and to go to bed. Transfers including use of a hoist. B. Personal Care: Attendance Allowance A person may qualify for AA if help is needed with: getting out of bed having a bath choosing clothes and getting dressed checking your appearance throughout the day cutting up food taking medication getting around avoiding obstacles locating items in your home using the toilet reading personal mail reading a newspaper The AA legislation refers to help in connection with "bodily functions". This has been subject to House of Lords judgements, and as a result has been deemed to cover, for example, the bodily function of seeing. 1212 .A 13 13 13December 1,,HP DeskJet 870C Series7 d,,HP DeskJet 870C SeriesLPT1 ,,eeůCpհ ,z z z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z *z z z z z   4hd support Behaviour management, psychological support, reminding devices and safety devices Simple treatments Assistance with medication (including eye drops), application of creams and lotions, simple dressings, oxygen therapy Personal Assistance Assistance with dressing, surgical appliances, prostheses, mechanical and manual aids. Assistance to get up and to go to bed. Transfers including use of a hoist. B. Personal Care: Attendance Allowance A person may qualify for AA if help is needed with: getting out of bed having a bath choosing clothes and getting dressed checking your appearance throughout the day cutting up food taking medication getting around avoiding obstacles locating items in your home using the toilet reading personal mail reading a newspaper The AA legislation refers to help in connection with "bodily functions". This has been subject to House of Lords judgements, and as a result has been deemed to cover, for example, the bodily function of seeing. 1212 .A 13 13 13December 1 Hhasening framework in November 2001.The CDG estimated that bwas()homeingThe CDGs estimate of 65Given unsuccessful outcome of thes estimates of costs of free personal care for the elderly in the community: 1. sthe through home care services as its starting pointbe 2. In relation to , t  The current situation, (February 2002) is as follows. 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